### TruthIsAll

TruthIsAll at Democratic Underground writes this:

Let's calculate the probability that:

1. 41 out of 50 states would move beyond the Exit poll percentage split in favor of Bush in the final vote tally.

The probability of a positive move to Bush (or Kerry) in the vote tally is equal to 50%.

Let's calculate the probability that at least 41 out of 50 states move to Bush, which is exactly what occurred.

Using the Excel binomial distribution function,the probability is:

P = 1-BINOMDIST(41, 50, 50%,TRUE) = 0.000058%

The odds are 1/P or ONE out of 1,718,869 that this could have occurred by chance.

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2. Bush would win Florida and Ohio.

Based on the Exit Polls:

The probability that Bush would win FL = .025

The probability that Bush would win OH = .023

Therefore the probability that Bush would win BOTH states is

P = .023 * .025 = .0000575

The odds are 1/P or ONE out of 1,739 that this could have occurred by chance.

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3. 16 out of 41 states would move beyond the Exit Poll margin of error – all in favor of Bush.

The probability that Bush's vote tally minus his Exit Poll percentage in any state would exceed the margin of error is .025

Here is the probability that 16 out of 51 states would move beyond the MOE in favor of Bush, again using the Binomial Distribution.

The probability is P =1 – BINOMDIST (16,51,0.025,TRUE)

or P = 0.0000000000004996%

The odds are 1/P, or ONE out of 200.159 TRILLION, that 16 state vote tallies would deviate beyond the MOE (all in favor of Bush) by chance. By the way, not ONE state moved beyond the MOE to Kerry.