Who Really Won?

Sunday, December 19, 2004

Ohio Election Certifiable

For some reason, Kerry gets a higher percentage of the Ohio vote counted after election day than he did then. The Free Press breaks it down, some highlights:

For less than 3% of the votes counted to offset by 0.30% the margin between the two candidates is significant. State wide, Kerry’s percentage of the newly counted votes was 54.46%, much greater than his percentage in the officially certified statewide results. The newly counted votes, whether absentee or provisional, were all paper ballots. The sample size is statistically significant. If the newly counted ballots do not represent a random sample of the electorate, it can only be because, on the one hand, absentee ballots tend to break in favor of Republicans, and on the other hand, provisional ballots disproportionately favor Democrats because of Republican challengers at the polling places.

On the other hand, the official count increased Kerry’s percentage of the vote in 66 counties (in 6 counties the percentages were unchanged). Kerry’s share of the newly counted votes was more than 4% higher than his unofficial total in 36 counties, including the ten biggest counties in the state.