Odds of Bush gaining by 4 percent in all exit polling states?

1 in 50,000

UPDATE:

A different prof thinks the odds of Bush gaining in 3 states (FL, PA, and OH) is 250 million to one.

"As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error."